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  • Sri Lanka is running out of gasoline

    Sri Lanka is running out of gasoline

    Sri Lanka’s newly appointed prime minister has stated that the cash-strapped island nation has run out of petrol, and that the country urgently needs $75 million in foreign exchange in the coming days to pay for essential imports such as medicine. 

    He also stated that the government was unable to raise funds to pay for three oil shipments, with the ships awaiting payment outside the Colombo harbor before discharging their cargoes. 

    ” The following couple of months will be the most irksome this country has anytime defied.” Obviously, this affects all aspects of life, not just the industrial and manufacturing sectors, but also daily life, children going to school, and every other aspect you can think of. 

    “People did not have a clear picture of how bad things were so far.” Reassurances from successive politicians did not help because people had a false sense of optimism that everything would be fine. 

    Wickremesinghe took office on Thursday, following the removal of his predecessor, Mahinda Rajapaksa, following weeks of deadly protests over the government’s handling of the economic crisis. 

    In a desperate attempt to appease protesters, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa supplanted Mahinda, his senior sibling, with Wickremesinghe, a resistance parliamentarian who has held the position five times previously.

    The crisis triggered widespread protests against President Rajapaksa and his family, culminating in Mahinda’s resignation as prime minister last week after deadly violence. 

    Protesters, however, have rejected Wickremesinghe’s appointment as Prime Minister and continue to call for Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s resignation. Dissidents and specialists have blamed the Rajapaksas for financial blunder, which has added to the emergency.

    Despite acknowledging the difficult period ahead, the new leader urged people to “patiently bear the next couple of months” and promised to overcome the crisis. 

    He also stated that the government would be forced to print money in order to pay the salaries of 1.4 million civil servants in May.

    He also warned that fuel and electricity prices would be significantly raised, and that his government would sell off its revenue-losing national carrier to reduce losses. 

    Meanwhile, in the capital, long lines of autorickshaws, the city’s most popular mode of transportation, waited for fuel at petrol stations. 

    “I’ve been in line for more than six hours,” one driver, Mohammad Ali, told Reuters. “We spend nearly six to seven hours in line just to get petrol,” he explained. 

    Another driver, Mohammad Naushad, reported that the gas station where he was waiting had run out of fuel. 

    “We’ve been here since 7-8 a.m. and it’s still unclear whether they’ll have fuel or not,” he said. “No one knows when it will arrive. Is there any point in our waiting here? We’re not sure.” 

    The essential Indian Ocean island country, where China and India are engaging for impact, is amidst an emergency exceptional since its freedom in 1948, inferable from the COVID-19 pandemic, rising oil costs, and egalitarian tax breaks by the Rajapaksas.

    A chronic currency shortage has resulted in rampant inflation and shortages of medicine, fuel, and other necessities, prompting thousands to take to the streets in protest.

    Wickremesinghe still can’t seem to name key clergymen, including the pivotal money serve, who will haggle with the International Monetary Fund for frantically required monetary help for the country.

    Previous Finance Minister Ali Sabry had held starter chats with the multilateral moneylender, however he surrendered last week close by Mahinda Rajapaksa.

    #edgeforex #forex #forextrading #forexsignals #srilanka #petrol #pm #fuel #life #economy #cash #shortage

  • Inflation

    Inflation

    Oil prices plummeted at the start of the pandemic, but demand has since rocketed back to a seven-year high.

    Gasoline costs an average of $3.31 per gallon in the United States, up from $2.39 per gallon a year ago. It’s a similar story in the United Kingdom and the European Union. 

    Gas prices have also risen, leaving people all over the world with eye-watering central heating bills. 

    Prices have risen due to increased demand from Asia, as well as a cold winter in Europe last year, which depleted gas reserves. 

    Consumers who were unable to go out to restaurants or on vacation due to the lockdown last year spent their money on household goods and home improvements.

    Manufacturers in Asia, for example, have struggled to keep up with demand since then, with many forced to close due to Covid restrictions. 

    It has resulted in material shortages such as plastic, concrete, and steel, driving up prices. Timber costs up to 80% more than usual in the UK in 2021, and it costs more than twice as much in the US. 

    Because of higher supply chain costs, major US retailers Nike and Costco have raised their prices. 

    Furthermore, microchips, which are critical components in automobiles, computers, and other household goods, are in short supply. 

    Global shipping companies, which transport goods around the world, have been overwhelmed by the pandemic’s surge in demand.

    As a result, retailers have had to pay significantly more to get those goods into their stores. As a result, prices have risen for consumers. 

    A single 40ft container from Asia to Europe now costs $17,000 (£12,480), which is ten times more than the previous year’s cost of $1,500 (£1,101). 

    It has been accompanied by an increase in air freight fees, which has been exacerbated by a lorry driver shortage in Europe. 

    In December, transportation bottlenecks appeared to be easing, with the United States beginning to address record port congestion. 

    However, Omicron and the emergence of future Covid variants have the potential to reverse these gains. 

    During the pandemic, many people quit or changed jobs.

    According to the US Department of Labor, more than four million people quit their jobs in April, the highest number on record. 

    As a result, businesses are having difficulty recruiting employees such as drivers, food processors, and restaurant waiters. 

    According to a survey of 50 major US retailers, 94% are having difficulty filling open positions. 

    As a result, companies are having to raise wages or offer signing bonuses in order to attract and retain employees. McDonald’s and Amazon are both offering $200 to $1,000 in hiring bonuses. 

    Those additional employer costs are being passed on to consumers once again. Next, a global clothing company, has blamed planned price increases for 2022 in part on rising wage costs.

    Hurricanes Ida and Nicholas wreaked havoc on global oil supplies as they passed through the Gulf of Mexico, damaging US oil infrastructure. 

    And problems meeting demand for microchips were exacerbated last year when a severe winter storm shut down major factories in Texas. 

    Coffee prices have also risen as a result of a poor harvest in Brazil, the world’s largest producer, following the country’s worst drought in nearly a century. 

    Imports that are more expensive are also contributing to price increases. New post-Brexit trade rules are expected to reduce EU imports to the UK by about a quarter in the first half of 2021.

    Many British tourists visiting Europe this year will face roaming charges. 

    Separately, almost all US import tariffs on Chinese goods have been passed on to US customers in the form of higher prices. 

    Last year, Chinese telecoms giant Huawei stated that US sanctions imposed on the company in 2019 were affecting US suppliers and global customers. 

    During the pandemic, governments around the world increased their spending and borrowing. As a result, tax increases have contributed to the cost-of-living squeeze, while most people’s wages have remained stagnant. 

    Many developed economies have policies to protect workers, such as furlough, as well as welfare policies to protect the poorest.

    Some economists believe that as the support measures expire, these policies will raise inflation.

    #edgeforex #forextrading #forex #forexsignals #oil #supply #consumer #highs #goods #europe #costs #living #prices

  • Trading Psychology Part 2 

    Trading Psychology Part 2 

    #edgeforex #forextrading #forexsognals #forex #trading #psychology #traders #greed #emotions #stability #snowball #cryptocurrecy #bitcoin psychology

    Tips to improve trading : 

    1. Fear, greed, excitement, overconfidence, and nervousness are all common emotions experienced by traders. Managing trading emotions can mean the difference between increasing account equity and going bankrupt. 
    2. Traders should perceive and smother FOMO when it shows up. While this is troublesome, merchants ought to remember that there will generally be another exchange and that they ought to just exchange with capital they can stand to lose.
    3. While all traders, regardless of experience, make mistakes, understanding the logic behind these mistakes may help to limit the snowball effect of trading impediments. Trading on multiple markets, using inconsistent trading sizes, and overleveraging are all examples of common trading mistakes.
    4. Greed is perhaps the most widely recognized feelings among broker, so it merits unique thought. At the point when insatiability wins over rationale, dealers will quite often twofold down on losing exchanges or utilize extreme influence to compensate for past misfortunes. While it is actually quite difficult, dealers should comprehend how to control their eagerness while exchanging.
    5. New merchants much of the time search for potential open doors any place they can be found and are captivated to exchange an assortment of business sectors, with next to zero respect for the innate contrasts between these business sectors. Traders can expect inconsistent results if they do not have a well-thought-out strategy that focuses on a few markets. Learn how to consistently trade.
    6. As individuals, we are frequently influenced by what we hear, and trading is no exception. There are numerous legends about exchanging, for example, merchants should have a huge record to find lasting success, or brokers should win most of exchanges to be productive. These trading myths can frequently act as a mental barrier, preventing people from trading.

    Mindset of a successful trader

    • While many nuances contribute to professional traders’ success, there are a few common approaches that traders of all levels can consistently implement within their specific trading strategy. 
    • An uplifting outlook will keep your brain clear of negative contemplations that can frustrate new exchanges.
    • You can only accept what the market offers. Some days you may make fifteen trades, while others you may not make a single trade for two weeks. Everything relies upon what is happening on the lookout and whether exchange arrangements that line up with your technique show up.
    •  Many people think of trading as a get-rich-quick scheme, but it is more of a journey of trade after trade. This expectation of immediate gratification frequently results in frustration and impatience. Remember to stay disciplined, stick to your plan, and look at trading as a journey.
  • Guide to Psychology in Trading

    Guide to Psychology in Trading

    #edgeforex #tradingsignals #forextrading #trade #market #psychology #anxiety #negative #fomo #stress #forex #cryptocurrency #bitcoin

    Trading psychology is frequently overlooked, but it is an essential component of a professional trader’s skill set. 

    Exchanging brain research is an expansive term that incorporates the feelings as a whole and sentiments that a regular dealer will insight while exchanging. Some of these emotions are beneficial and should be encouraged, while others, such as fear, greed, nervousness, and anxiety, should be avoided. Trading psychology is complicated and takes time to fully understand. 

    Truly, numerous brokers are more impacted by the negative parts of exchanging brain research than by the positive perspectives. This can show itself as rashly shutting losing exchanges as the anxiety toward misfortune turns out to be excessively incredible, or just multiplying down on losing positions when the apprehension about understanding a misfortune goes to avarice.

    Misgiving about missing a significant open door, or FOMO as it is nonchalantly known, is conceivably the most perilous sentiments in money related market. When the market reverses and moves in the opposite direction, traders are enticed to buy after the move has peaked, causing enormous emotional stress. 

    Merchants who can profit from the positive parts of brain science while dealing with the negative viewpoints are better situated to manage the unpredictability of monetary business sectors and become better brokers.

  • Forex News March 26, 2022

    Forex News March 26, 2022

    #edgeforex #forexsignals #forextrading #forex #market #trading #economic #payrolls #bonds #us #auction #cryptocurrency #bitcoin economic

    US

    The US economic calendar for the coming week includes quarter-end and non-farm payrolls.

    Next week’s US economic calendar begins quietly but ends with a bang. The most important thing to remember is that the month and quarter are coming to an end. We’ve seen some massive moves in bonds, which will result in some associated flows. It’s also the end of the fiscal year in Japan. Here’s what to expect from US economic data in the coming months.

    • Monday’s events include an advance goods trade balance, a 2-year auction, and a 5-year auction.
    • Tuesday’s events include JOLTS, Consumer Confidence, the House Price Index, and a 7-year auction.
    • Wednesday: ADP employment, Q4 GDP final.
    • Thursday: PCE and initial jobless claims.
    • Friday’s economic data includes nonfarm payrolls, the ISM manufacturing index, and construction spending.

    There will also be a lot of Fedspeak. Williams today emphasised the importance of data, and the market is currently pricing in a 79 percent chance of 50 basis points on May 4.

    Germany

    Scholz of Germany said : “We will be independent of Russian gas sooner than many people believe”

    Scholz’s comments: Germany is less reliant on Russian gas than others, with some relying entirely on it. The process of becoming self-sufficient in Russian gas is irreversible.

    It would be something if Russia turned off the taps; it would undoubtedly be a quick transition. 

    Russia

    • The Russian demand to be paid in roubles will be a major topic next week.

    • This week, Putin put a damper on rouble shorts by demanding that payments for Russian oil and gas from ‘unfriendly countries’ be made in rubles.

    • This resulted in a 10% rally in the rouble on Wednesday, with the currency retaining two-thirds of its gains.
    • The question now is whether it occurs (unlikely) and what Russia will do in response (much tougher to guess).
    • Europeans have made it clear that they will not pay in roubles.
    • They argue that the contracts require payment in dollars or euros and that they are under no obligation to change course. Even if they wanted to pay in roubles, they would have a difficult time obtaining them. As a result, Putin’s threat may be hollow.
    • This week we’ll find out. Russia has hinted that if Europe refuses to pay in roubles, it may hold them in arrears. That’s a stretch, but we’re not exactly adhering to global standards.
    • On a domestic level, this would be extremely damaging to Russia, but it would also have a significant impact on European industry and energy consumers.
    • It would be a significant escalation in the economic war. What makes me think it’s more likely than most people believe is that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated today that the West has declared total war on Russia as a result of sanctions.
    • This could be their way of repaying the favour. The US is talking about increasing LNG supplies, but there won’t be any for years. Anything delivered to Europe will have to be rerouted from somewhere else, most likely Asia.

    China

    • Be on the lookout for data from China this weekend – February Industrial Profit.
    • Due at 0130 GMT on March 27, 2022
    • This expected data release is not listed on all calendars.
    • Due at 0130 GMT on March 27, 2022
    • Saturday, March 26, 2022, at 21.30 US ET (9.30pm).
    • Industrial Profits in China in February 2022
    • prior +4.20 percent year on year • prior +34.3 percent year to date
    • The Chinese PMIs for March will be of greater interest next week. These will begin on Thursday, March 31st, with the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, which are due at 0100 GMT on March 31st:
    • The times listed in the left-hand column are in GMT.
    • The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month) results, and the number in the column next to that is the expected consensus median.
  • Swiss Franc 

    Swiss Franc 

    #edgeforex #trading #forex #impact #politics #reacts #monetary #fiscal #intervention #swiss #franc #parity #currency #governments #cryprocurrency #bitcoin franc

    The Swiss franc reached parity with the euro on Monday, but data from the country’s central bank suggests policymakers are unlikely to be concerned. The Swiss Franc at Euro parity indicates that the Swiss National Bank’s interventions are only muted. 

    Last week’s sight deposit figures showed a 0.07 percent increase to 725.7 billion francs ($785 billion), implying that the Swiss National Bank only intervened marginally to halt the currency’s appreciation against the euro. 

    The increase is modest, indicating that the SNB has not intervened significantly in the last few days. It has a lot to do with the franc’s appreciation against the euro rather than other currencies.

    Last month, the franc gained about 1.2 percent against the euro, aided by haven flows following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Furthermore, the European Union’s high exposure to the Russian economy has harmed the common currency. Earlier Monday, data showed that the SNB’s foreign-currency reserves fell by 8.4 billion francs ($8.7 billion) in February to 938.3 billion francs. This is most likely due to the franc’s appreciation that month. 

    Currency interventions, along with the world’s lowest interest rate, are part of the SNB’s policy approach. While the Fed reiterated its willingness to intervene on Monday, it also stated that it “considers the overall currency situation,” with individual currency pairs not playing a “special role.”

    The euro-franc pair has continued to fall this month, reaching parity in early trade Monday for the first time since the SNB lifted its cap on the franc’s value against the euro in 2015. At 10:57 a.m. in Zurich, it was trading at 1.0048 per euro. 

    It’s a difficult situation for the SNB. The franc/euro parity has reached a psychological tipping point. On the other hand, the case for monetary policy easing is weak because of the inflation outlook and the growth outlook, both of which are favourable due to the reopening of the Swiss economy” following the omicron surge.. 

  • The dollar rises as tensions in Ukraine increase.

    The dollar rises as tensions in Ukraine increase.

    #edgeforex #trading #market #stocks #money #forex #inflation #turkey #nebati #reserve #gold #russia #ukraine #tensions #cryprocurrency #bitcoin tensions

    The dollar had been trading mostly sideways until the US caution about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine hit markets. The dollar index, which gauges the US currency’s value against six major currencies, rose 0.258 per cent.

    At the same time, the dollar and other safe-haven assets rose on Friday as the United States reported Russia had collected enough troops near Ukraine to launch a major invasion.

    Crude futures in the United States soared more than 5% to $94.66 per barrel, the highest level since 2014, while gold jumped more than 2% to a near two-month high at one point.

    According to White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, a Russian strike may begin at any time and would most likely begin with an air assault. 

    The dollar rose in response to Sullivan’s words, as well as rumours that Russian President Vladimir Putin had chosen to invade Ukraine, which the White House later disputed. 

    Washington ordered that all citizens of the United States leave the country within 48 hours. Other countries have warned their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately, including the United Kingdom, Japan, Latvia, Norway, and the Netherlands. 

    The surge in the dollar, together with advances in other safe-haven assets such as US Treasuries and the Japanese yen, indicates that the market is growing increasingly concerned about the possibility of an invasion. The Japanese yen surged 0.63 percent versus the US dollar to 115.29 per dollar, while the Canadian dollar plummeted as risk-sensitive assets sold down in response to worries of a Russian invasion. The market’s uncertainty over how interest rate rises would go has contributed to frantic sessions this week, as the dollar remained uncertain about its future.

    Russia’s ruble, which was already down for the day, plummeted even further as a result of the news. The rouble was recently down 2.73 percent against the dollar, trading at 77.00 per dollar. 

    Meanwhile, the euro fell as markets absorbed the news, and it was on track for a weekly loss after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated in an interview that hiking rates now would not reduce record eurozone inflation but would instead harm the economy.

  • Sound Money 3: The Full-Employment Doctrine

    Sound Money 3: The Full-Employment Doctrine

    #edgeforex #trading #market #stocks #money #forex #trader #inflation #dollar #gold #price #pattern #doctrine #employement #sound #money #adjustment #cryprocurrency #bitcoin doctrine

    Inflationary or expansionary doctrine comes in a variety of flavours. However, its core material stays constant. 

    The most basic and unsophisticated interpretation is that there is an apparently inadequate amount of money. According to the grocer, business is terrible since my customers or prospective customers do not have enough money to increase their purchases. So far, he is correct. But when he adds that increasing the amount of money in circulation is what is required to make his firm more profitable, he is erroneous. What he truly wants is to raise the amount of money in the pockets of his clients and prospective customers while keeping the quantity of money in the hands of others constant.

    Adam Smith and Jean-Baptiste Say demolished this bogus grocer ideology once and for all. Lord Keynes reintroduced it in our day, and it is now one of the fundamental policies of all governments that are not fully subservient to the Soviets, under the guise of full-employment policy. Nonetheless, Keynes was unable to make a compelling case against Say’s law. Neither his pupils nor the slew of faux and real economists in the offices of various countries, the United Nations, and a variety of other national and international organisations have fared any better. The fallacies implicit in the Keynesian full-employment thesis are fundamentally the same faults that Smith and Say have long destroyed.

    Wage rates are a market phenomena; they are the prices paid for a specific amount of work of a specific quality. If a guy is unable to sell his work at the price he desires, he must cut the price he is asking for it or else he will remain unemployed. If the government or labour unions set wage rates that are higher than the potential rate of the unhindered labour market and enforce their minimum-wage edict via pressure and coercion, a portion of individuals looking for work will stay unemployed. Such institutional unemployment is unavoidable as a result of the strategies used by today’s self-styled progressive governments. It is the true result of pro-labor policies that have been mislabeled.

    There is only one effective approach to raise real wage rates and enhance wage workers’ standard of living: increase the per-head quota of capital invested. This is what laissez-faire capitalism achieves to the degree that it is not hindered by the government and labour unions. 

    We don’t need to look into whether today’s politicians are aware of these truths. Mentioning them to students is frowned upon at most colleges. Books that are dubious of official ideologies are not generally purchased by libraries or utilised in courses, and as a result, publishers are hesitant to publish them.

    Newspapers seldom question the prevalent belief because they fear a union boycott. Thus, politicians may be quite serious in believing that they have achieved “social benefits” for the “people,” and that the increase of unemployment is one of the ills inherent in capitalism, not the result of the policies they are bragging about. Whatever the case may be, it is clear that the status and prestige of the individuals who now rule the nations outside the Soviet bloc, as well as their professorial and journalistic supporters, are inextricably linked to the “progressive” concept, and they must adhere to it.

    If they do not wish to abandon their political goals, they must resolutely deny that their own policies tend to make mass unemployment a permanent occurrence, and they must try to blame capitalism for the unintended consequences of their policies. 

    The greatest distinguishing element of the full-employment concept is that it does not give information on how market pay rates are decided. Discussing the peak of pay rates is frowned upon by “progressives.” They do not discuss pay rates while discussing unemployment. According to them, the peak in wage rates has nothing to do with unemployment and should never be referenced in conjunction with it.

    If there are unemployed, says the progressive doctrine, the government must increase the amount of money in circulation until full employment is reached. It is, they say, a serious mistake to call inflation an increase in the quantity of money in circulation effected under these conditions. It is just “full-employment policy.”

    We can avoid frowning on the doctrine’s terminological strangeness. The fundamental idea is that any increase in the amount of money in circulation causes prices and wages to rise. If, despite the rise in commodity prices, pay rates do not rise at all or trail far behind the rise in commodity prices, the number of persons jobless due to the high wage rates will fall. However, it will fall simply because such a combination of commodities prices and wage rates implies a decline in real pay rates.

    It would not have been required to increase the amount of money in circulation to achieve this goal. A reduction in the height of the minimum-wage rates imposed by the government or union pressure would have had the same impact without triggering all of the additional effects of inflation. 

    It is true that in certain nations during the 1930s, resort to inflation was not immediately followed by an increase in the height of money wage rates as determined by governments or unions, resulting in a decline in real wage rates and, as a result, a decrease in the number of jobless. However, this was a one-time occurrence.

    When Lord Keynes predicted in 1936 that a push by employers to reduce money-wage deals would be far more fiercely contested than a gradual and “automatic” reduction of real pay rates as a result of rising prices,8 he had already been rendered obsolete and contradicted by the march of events. The masses had already begun to see through the inflationary ruse. The unions’ interactions with wage rates became dominated by issues of buying power and index numbers. The full-employment argument in favour of inflation was already out of date when Keynes and his supporters declared it to be the guiding principle of progressive economic policies.

  • Bid Adieu to negative rates

    Bid Adieu to negative rates

    #edgeforex #trading #market #stocks #money #forex #inflation #dollar #price #hwkish #negative #forecast #adjustment #cryprocurrency #bitcoin

    Continued upside inflation shocks and hawkish ECB remarks have resulted in more rate hikes in the Eurozone profile. Tighter ECB policy offers up more upside for longer term rates but also limiting how low the EUR/USD may go. 

    The ECB has followed in the footsteps of many other central banks in becoming more hawkish, and we have added rises to our ECB projection profile. Market pricing for the Fed’s forecast has also gotten more hawkish, but we continue to believe that quarterly 25bp rate rises are a solid baseline. In a nutshell, we anticipate the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points four times this year, beginning in March, followed by four more rises in 2023. During the summer, a decision will be made on whether to allow the balance sheet to contract.

    In March, the ECB will decide to terminate net bond purchases towards the end of August. Rate increases of 25 basis points will be implemented in December 2022, March 2023, and September 2023. 

    EUR/USD is expected to reach a low of 1.10 later this year and a high of 1.18 by the end of next year. 

    Long term rates will continue to rise, but the yield curve will flatten from present levels by the end of the forecast horizon. 

    The ECB is becoming hawkish. 

    The ECB’s hawkish shift last week took financial markets off surprise. Following the ECB meeting, for example, the 5-year EUR swap rate increased by the most in more than 10 years in only two days. 

    We now envisage three 25bp rate increases during our projection horizon to the end of 2023, based on the ECB’s signals and higher revisions to predictions, which now show Euro-area core inflation staying over the ECB’s 2 percent objective for the majority of the forecast horizon. 

    We continue to believe that market pricing of more than 50bp higher overnight rates, i.e. two 25bp rate rises, until the end of the year is excessive.

    After all, Klaas Knot, one of the most hawkish ECB Governing Council members, has stated that the first ECB rate rise would occur in the fourth quarter, followed by another in the spring. Furthermore, according to a Financial Times piece citing ECB sources, even more hawkish ECB officials saw a rate rise this summer as implausible. 

    One should not rule out the possibility of the scenario priced by financial markets materialising entirely. After all, the ECB only a few months ago informed us that a rate rise this year was quite improbable — now it isn’t.

    A few of further positive surprises in inflation and/or shockingly strong pay growth data might lead plans to be implemented as early as September. However, based on existing knowledge, we believe that the present pricing for this year is excessively aggressive. 

    A quick tightening of financial conditions is a significant risk element for the ECB. While funding circumstances remain favourable, they have begun to tighten fast. Nonetheless, it is critical to distinguish between the Eurozone’s predicament last year, when the ECB was undershooting its aim, and the argument that favourable financing conditions were necessary to assist push inflation to the target.

    If the ECB is approaching the point where it needs to control inflationary pressures, tougher lending conditions are the tools to that end. Still, a sudden tightening is unlikely to be in the ECB’s best interests, and additional increases in e.g. bond spreads may heighten concerns that the ECB cannot tighten policy too forcefully, limiting the pricing of ECB hikes.

  • Sound Money 2 : The Virtues and Shortcomings of the Gold Standard

    Sound Money 2 : The Virtues and Shortcomings of the Gold Standard

    #edgeforex #trading #market #stocks #money #forex #trader #inflation #dollar #gold #price #pattern #virtues #sound #money #adjustment #cryprocurrency #bitcoin

    The gold standard’s superiority may be observed in the fact that it makes the determination of the buying power of the monetary unit independent of government and political party policy. It stops rulers from abusing the representative assembly’ financial and budgetary powers. Parliamentary financial control works only if the government is unable to cover unlawful spending by raising the amount of fiat money in circulation. In this sense, the gold standard appears to be a necessary component of the body of constitutional guarantees that enable representative government to work.

    When gold output expanded dramatically in California and Australia in the 1950s, the gold standard was criticised as being inflationary. Michel Chevalier advocated for the abandoning of the gold standard in his book Probable Depreciation of Gold at the time, while Béranger addressed the matter in one of his poems. However, these complaints faded with time. The gold standard was no longer considered inflationary, but rather deflationary. Even the most ardent proponents of inflation seek to mask their actual motivations by claiming that they are only trying to counteract the contractionary pressures that an apparently inadequate quantity of gold causes.

    Inflation has long been advocated as a way to relieve the burdens of impoverished deserving debtors at the expense of affluent harsh creditors. The usual debtors under capitalism, on the other hand, are well-to-do owners of real estate, businesses, and common stock, as well as persons who have borrowed from banks, savings banks, insurance companies, and bondholders. People of moderate means who possess bonds and savings accounts or have taken out insurance policies are the usual debtors. If the average person supports anti-creditor legislation, it is because he ignores the fact that he is a creditor himself. The notion that wealthy are victims of easy money policies is a relic of the past.

    The issuance of fiat money appears to be magical to the inexperienced mind. A magic word spoken by the government generates something out of nothing that may be exchanged for whatever item a man desires. When compared to the Treasury Department of the government, the art of sorcerers, witches, and conjurors pales in comparison! Professors teach us that the government “can print all the money it wants.” Taxes for revenue are “obsolete,” according to the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.  What a beautiful thing! And how vengeful and misanthropic are those adamant adherents of antiquated economic dogma who demand that governments balance their budgets by paying all expenses with tax revenue.

    These believers fail to see that inflation is conditioned by public ignorance, and that inflation ceases to function as soon as the public becomes aware of its consequences on the buying power of the monetary unit. People are unconcerned about monetary issues in normal times, that is, when the government does not meddle with the monetary standard. They take it for granted that the buying power of the monetary unit is “stable.” They are interested in fluctuations in the money values of various goods. They are fully aware that the exchange rates between various commodities fluctuate.

    They are, however, unaware that the exchange rate between money and all commodities and services is also changing. When the unavoidable effects of inflation manifest and prices rise, they mistakenly believe that goods are becoming more expensive while failing to see that money is becoming less expensive. Only a few people recognise what is going on early in an inflation, conduct their businesses in accordance with this knowledge, and purposefully seek inflation advantages. The vast majority of people are too dull to comprehend a right assessment of the circumstance. They continue about their business as usual in non-inflationary times. They accuse individuals who are faster to recognise the true reasons of the market commotion of being “profiteers,” and they blame them for their own misfortune. The public’s ignorance is the unavoidable foundation of inflationary policies. Inflation works as long as the housewife believes to herself, “I desperately need a new frying pan.” But today’s prices are too high; I’ll wait till they fall again.” It comes to an abrupt halt when individuals realise that inflation will continue, that it causes price increases, and that prices will thus continue to grow indefinitely. “I don’t need a new frying pan today,” the homemaker thinks at the key point. In a year or two, I may require one. But I’m going to get it now because it’ll be a lot more expensive afterwards.” Then the inflation’s tragic conclusion is approaching. “I don’t need another table; I’ll never need one,” the housewife believes at the end of the process. But it’s better to purchase a table than to hold these bits of paper the government refers to as money for another minute.” 

    The index-number approach is a very rudimentary and imprecise way of “measuring” changes in the buying power of a monetary unit. Because there are no stable relationships between magnitudes in the sphere of social affairs, no measurement is feasible, therefore economics can never become quantitative.

    Despite its shortcomings, the index-number technique plays a vital part in the process of making people inflation-conscious during an inflationary cycle. Once the use of index numbers becomes widespread, the government is compelled to limit the rate of inflation and persuade the public that the inflationary policy is only a temporary measure to deal with a temporary situation that will be resolved soon. While government economists continue to tout inflation’s advantages as a long-term monetary management strategy, governments are forced to take caution in its implementation.

    It is legitimate to label a policy of purposeful inflation dishonest since the desired outcomes can only be achieved if the government succeeds in fooling the majority of the population about the strategy’s implications. Many proponents of interventionist programmes will have no qualms about such deception; in their minds, nothing the government does can ever be wrong. However, their high moral indifference is unable to counter an objection to the economist’s anti-inflation argument. The essential issue, in the economist’s opinion, is not that inflation is ethically terrible, but that it can only work when used with extreme caution, and even then only for a limited time.As a result, resorting to inflation cannot be seriously regarded as a viable alternative to a permanent standard like the gold standard. 

    The pro-inflationist propaganda stresses today the purported reality that the gold standard failed and will never be tried again: governments are no longer ready to follow the rules of the gold-standard game and suffer all of the costs associated with maintaining the gold standard. 

    To begin with, it is critical to recognise that the gold standard did not fail. It was eliminated by governments to make room for inflation. To bring down the gold standard, the whole infrastructure of tyranny and compulsion — police, customs guards, criminal tribunals, jails, and, in certain nations, even executioners — had to be put into operation. Solemn vows were breached, retroactive legislation were passed, and constitutional and bill of rights provisions were openly ignored. And a slew of servile authors lauded the governments’ actions and heralded the century of fiat money. 

    However, the most surprising aspect of this ostensibly new monetary strategy is its total failure.

    True, it replaced sound money with fiat money in domestic markets, favouring the material interests of certain persons and groups at the detriment of others. It also had a significant role in the collapse of the international division of labour. It did not, however, succeed in dethroning gold as the international or global standard. If you look at the financial section of any newspaper, you’ll see right away that gold is still the world’s money, not the various products of various government printing agencies. The more steady the price of an ounce of gold, the more valuable these bits of paper become. Today, anyone who even suggests that countries may revert to a local gold standard is branded a crazy. This terrorism might go for a long time. The status of gold as the world’s standard, on the other hand, is unassailable. The policy of “moving off the gold standard” did not remove a country’s monetary authority from the need to consider the price of gold when determining the monetary unit. 

    What all opponents of the gold standard decry as its fundamental sin is the same thing that supporters of the gold standard praise as its greatest virtue: its incompatibility with a credit-expansion programme.

    The expansionist fallacy lies at the heart of all anti-gold authors’ and politicians’ arguments. 

    Interest, or the discount of future goods against current goods, is an originary category of human valuation, present in every sort of human behaviour and irrespective of any social structures, according to the expansionist view. The expansionists fail to see that there have never been and will never be human beings who place the same value on an apple accessible in a year or a hundred years as they do on an apple available today.

    Our central bank is compelled to retain its discount rate at a level that reflects international money market circumstances and foreign central bank discount rates. Otherwise, “speculators” would withdraw cash from our nation for short-term investment in other countries, causing our central bank’s gold holdings to fall below the permissible ratio. There would be no need for our central bank to adapt the height of the money rate to the circumstances of the international money market, which is ruled by the world-encompassing gold monopoly, if it were not required to redeem its banknotes in gold.

    The most incredible aspect of this argument is that it was made in debtor nations, where the operation of the international money and capital markets meant an infusion of foreign funds and, as a result, the appearance of a trend toward lower interest rates. In the 1870s and 1880s, it was quite popular in Germany and much more so in Austria, but it was barely discussed in England or the Netherlands, whose banks and bankers gave generously to Germany and Austria. It was only after World War I, when Great Britain’s status as the world’s financial hub had been lost, that it was advanced in England.

    Of course, the reasoning is flawed in the first place. The transnational intertwinement of the lending sector does not cause the inevitable failure of each endeavour at credit expansion. It is the result of the fact that non-existing capital goods cannot be replaced with fiat money and bank circulation credit. Credit growth might initially result in a boom. However, such a boom would inevitably end in a fall, a depression. The repeated attempts of governments and banks under their supervision to extend credit in order to make business profitable through low interest rates are precisely what cause economic crises to reoccur.