Tag: dollar

  • Understanding Trading Warrants: How They Operate and Essential Concepts

    Understanding Trading Warrants: How They Operate and Essential Concepts

    Understanding the bigger picture, how different aspects relate, and how specific procedures work may be difficult in any profession. This is often made worse by a particular language and many terminologies that are only sometimes utilized consistently and uniformly. A trader may take a long warrant position, betting on increasing prices, or a short warrant position, betting on a decrease in the underlying value, depending on the outcome they anticipate for the underlying.
    The leverage is excessive if the warrant is a knockout or turbo warrant and may significantly increase the profit. But, the underlying price could go against expectations and beyond the so-called knockout barrier, in which case the value of the knockout warrant would expire with zero value.
    The financial markets haven’t changed much for a long time, but recently there has been some movement. The average retail investor has gone a long way, even though there are now more asset classes, instruments, and strategies than ever. Understanding the variables that impact markets has become more challenging.

    In Europe, a rising tendency towards self-directed financial investing and increased expertise among individual investors result from a confluence of factors. On the one hand, a generation of people was born into the digital age and have yet to overcome obstacles to utilizing digital apps. Because of this, there is now more autonomy in every area thanks to digital information collecting and sharing. On the other hand, due to technological advancement, even older generations have given up their qualms about access to trading and investment.

    Technology advancements have always been crucial in providing access to previously only open regions to a few participants by simplifying and decreasing the cost of such access. Yet, the reason why individuals choose to participate is a sometimes disregarded aspect. Although there are sometimes transient trends or hypes, significant pattern shifts are longer-term occurrences that are often economically motivated, whether the current interest rate environment or longer-term factors like the hazy future of national pension systems.

    While certificates had been there for a while, it wasn’t until the dot.com bubble burst that ordinary investors started looking for alternatives to the buy-and-hold equities strategy and ways to safeguard their portfolios or benefit from declining stock prices. Twenty years later, as we have become used to one major crisis being followed by another and as volatility has become a continuous companion, ordinary investors are now expected to look for methods to maximize their trading revenue. One such option is certificates, especially ones with leverage.

    warrant

    The History and Classification

    Securitized derivatives are the most popular generic name for goods of such kind that are structured for sale. The first covered warrants were issued in Germany and Switzerland in the 1980s. They afterward spread to France, Italy, and the UK (today, covered warrants represent just a tiny part of traded securitized derivatives). Securitized derivatives in the European market may be separated into investment products (which have 100% participation) and leverage products. The exposure to the performance of an underlying asset is developed via leverage instruments, such as warrants, with a greater degree of exposure than putting the same amount of money directly into the underlying financial instrument or asset.

    Investment goods include credit-related notes, participation products that increase yield, and capital protection products. Leverage products are further broken down into continual leverage, knockout products, and products without a knockout.

    The European countries of Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, Spain, Switzerland, The Netherlands, Austria, Belgium, and the United Kingdom are the most important markets for securitized derivatives.

    How do goods with leverage operate?

    The price development of the underlying asset affects how much a leveraged product costs. Although the remaining maturity, the strike price, and the amount of the underlying’s variation (implied volatility) all affect the price of an option certificate, leverage instruments like warrants participate virtually linearly in the underlying asset’s performance. Warrants themselves may be purchased as knockout- or knock-out-free items.

    According to how the value of the underlying asset fluctuates with the leverage and has a corresponding impact on the value of the warrant, the leverage of the warrant shows by how much its value increases or decreases.

    Knowing the underlying, the subscription ratio, and the knockout barrier are necessary to determine the value of a turbo warrant. The difference between the price of the underlying and the knockout barrier determines the turbo warrant’s value. The subscription ratio is then multiplied by the result. The leverage will then be determined by multiplying this result by the subscription ratio after dividing the underlying price by the turbo warrant price.

    Risks and Chances

    Compared to a direct investment in the underlying, one of the most noticeable benefits of turbo warrants is that you only have to pay a small portion of the entire value of your transaction to create a position. The possibility of achieving a considerable profit is another possibility. Moreover, investors can access all major financial markets via leveraged products, including commodities, indices, currencies, FX, and stock markets. Trading leverage goods is the only option for retail investors to profit from increasing and falling prices, making it the only opportunity for a retail investor to join into a hedge that is not conceivable without a derivative. Their appeal is increased by the ease with which leverage products may now be traded.

    warrant

    Turbo warrants, on the other hand, are only appropriate for investors who are conscious of and capable of accepting the associated risks. Although it is possible to gain disproportionately from price changes, losing all the money invested is also conceivable. Even if you have invested less than you would have had you purchased the underlying item directly, and the loss is limited to the amount spent by reaching the knockout level, it is still a loss.

    What should traders of turbo warrants watch out for?

    Consumer behavior has changed significantly as a result of technological advancement. People should also want this in the trade, as they demand high standards of service, prompt replies, flexibility, transparency, and competitive costs in most cases. This is not done to be demanding but rather because there are significant disparities across providers, and on-venue trading is the first thing investors should be cautious of.

    Their transactions will be completed on a regulated trading platform, which guarantees non-discretionary handling of orders, a high degree of transparency, and the security of a setting closely supervised by regulatory authorities. The limitlessness of trading—the longer the trading hours, the better—is another crucial factor, particularly for those who trade securitized derivatives with knockouts. High liquidity is also crucial when dealing with turbo warrants since you want to locate the relevant bid and offer quotations for any purchasing or selling interest.

  • 4 Global Market Updates- 27 February, 2023

    4 Global Market Updates- 27 February, 2023

    In this article, we have covered the highlights of global market news about the AUD/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and NZD/USD.

    AUD/USD: Weak near-term forecast continues, according to UOB

    According to UOB Group economists Lee Sue Ann and Quek Ser Leang, the short-term outlook for AUD/USD indicate that the slide might continue to the 0.6680 zone.

    24-hour perspective: “We emphasized last Friday that despite the sluggish downward pace, we continue to see an opportunity for AUD to hit 0.6775 before a more prolonged comeback is expected.” While our prediction that the Australian dollar would decline was accurate, instead of challenging the level of 0.6775, the Australian dollar plunged to a low of 0.6719 and closed at 0.6726 (-1.20%). While more AUD weakening is possible, any fall today is unlikely to jeopardize the primary support around 0.6680 because of the highly oversold circumstances. A breakthrough of 0.6785 (minor resistance is at 0.6760) on the upside would suggest that the AUD’s weakness has steadied.

    For the next three weeks: “Our most recent commentary was from last Thursday (February 23, spot at 0.6810), in which we said that the Australian dollar “is expected to decline further to 0.6775, potentially 0.6730.” Our prediction came true when the Australian dollar plunged to a low of 0.6719 on Friday. The following levels to monitor in AUD are 0.6680 and 0.6630, as the outlook in that currency remains poor. Overall, a break of 0.6820 (a strong resistance level formerly at 0.6890) would signal the conclusion of the AUD downturn that began more than a week ago.

    GBP/USD: UOB expects more declines below 1.1870

    According to UOB Group economists Lee Sue Ann and Quek Ser Leang, a break below the 1.1870 barrier are predicted to cause the GBP/USD to continue losing ground.

    usd

    “We warned last Friday that GBP “is expected to push lower,” but we maintained the belief that “the support around 1.1950 is unlikely to come under assault.” 24-hour view The expected decrease came sooner than we anticipated, with the pound breaking through 1.1945 and falling to 1.1928. While there has been a drop, the downward momentum has hardly changed. Yet, the pound is expected to lose ground even if a persistent slide below 1.1915 seems improbable (the next support is at 1.1870). Resistance is found at 1.1975, then 1.2000.

    For the next three weeks: “On Friday (February 24, spot at 1.2020), we said that ‘downward momentum is showing signs of growth, but GBP needs to breach the main support around 1.1950 before a protracted slide is possible. The fact that the GBP broke through 1.1950 in NY trading and fell as low as 1.1928 surprised us somewhat. While the price actions indicate the danger for the pound is to the downside, it has to break through further significant support around 1.1870 before it can continue to fall. The downside risk remains as long as 1.2050 (a “strong resistance” level that was at 1.2105 last Friday) is not crossed.

    USD/CAD maintains small advances over the 1.3600 level and is headed for more appreciation.

    After a Monday intraday slump to levels below 1.3600, the USD/CAD pair draws some buying and reaches a new daily high in the early European session. The pair’s current price is about 1.3625, although it is still below the high point reached on Friday, which was the highest level since January 6.

    On the opening day of a new week, Crude Oil prices encounter additional supply, which is expected to weaken the commodity-linked Loonie and strengthen the USD/CAD pair. The likelihood of weaker Russian exports is overshadowed by concerns that the economy would develop more slowly and gasoline consumption would decline due to fast-increasing borrowing costs. This, in turn, makes it difficult for oil prices to continue their two-day-old upward trend after their previous Thursday’s almost three-week low.

    Aside from this, speculations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) would halt the cycle of tightening monetary policy weighing on the home currency are supported by weaker Canadian consumer inflation data reported last week. In contrast, in the midst of persistently rising inflation, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain its hawkish posture. This maintains the safe-haven US Dollar stuck at a multi-week high, giving the USD/CAD pair a boost and a milder risk tone.

    NZD/USD falls near 0.6100 on concerns about weak New Zealand consumption and increasing Fed rates.

    With depressed New Zealand (NZ) fundamentals conflicting with the US Dollar demand, NZD/USD bears maintain control at the lowest levels since November 2022, down 0.5 percent at 0.6130 early Monday.

    usd

    Despite this, NZ Retail Sales for the fourth quarter (Q4) came in at -0.6% QoQ, lower than the 1.5% forecast and 0.4% previous.

    On the other side, Paul Conway, chief economist of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), stated: “As interest rates increase, I anticipate consumption to slow.”

    Strong US inflation-related statistics and Fed officials’ support for higher rates combined to push the Fed fund futures over 5.30%, compared to the 5.10% the US central bank had anticipated in December. These factors combine with the most recent Western sanctions against Russia to heighten market concerns about rising geopolitical conflict, supporting demand for haven assets like the US Dollar.

    Please click here for the Market News Updates from 24 February, 2023.

  • Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD may hit the $25.00 channel barrier.

    Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD may hit the $25.00 channel barrier.

    Silver rises a little on Friday but doesn’t continue over $24.00. Bullish traders are favored by the technical setup, which also provides opportunities for further gains. The optimistic picture will be destroyed with a strong breach under trend-channel support.

    In the Asian session on Friday, silver makes gains on the previous day’s decent recovery from the $23.15 region or a two-week low. However, silver finds it difficult to acquire traction or maintain it above the $24.00 level, and it has already partially given up some of its small intraday gains.

    Technically speaking, the bottom end of an ascending channel that has been in place for more than a month served as support for the XAG/USD on Thursday. The following uptick indicates that this week’s decline from the $24.50 resistance area has reached its conclusion. Additionally, oscillators on the hourly charts have resumed their upward trend and barely manage to stay in the bullish zone on the daily chart.

    silver

    The aforementioned technical situation favours the possibility of a continued upward movement, but aggressive bullish traders should exercise care given the absence of follow-through purchasing. The XAG/USD still seems prepared to retest the multi-month top, at $24.50, before attempting to overcome the trend-channel resistance. The latter is now valued slightly over the psychological $25.00 threshold.

    On the 4-hour chart, the 200-period SMA at $23.55 guards against the near-term downside on the other hand. The overnight swing low, at $23.15, and the trend-channel support, in the $23.40-$23.35 region, are closely behind this. The XAG/USD pair will be more susceptible to weakness below the $23.00 level if there is a clear breach below the aforementioned support levels, which will be considered a new trigger for bearish traders.

    Before the XAG/USD finally dips to the $22.10-$22.00 area, the following pertinent support is set around the $22.60-$22.55 region. The latter indicates a static resistance breakpoint and could, at least temporarily, serve to prevent any additional losses.

    4-hour silver chart

    Source: FX Street
  • Gold slides from the 5-month peak below $1,800

    Gold slides from the 5-month peak below $1,800

    Gold’s price drops from a five-month high as the US Dollar somewhat recovers intraday. US Treasury bond rates are increasing, putting pressure on the XAU/USD and reviving USD demand.

    Risks associated with the price of gold should be limited by bets on the Federal Reserve hiking rates less firmly. Gold’s price falls from the $1,810 area, or the five-month high hit earlier this Monday, failing to benefit from the intraday gain. The XAU/USD slips below $1,800 during the early part of the European session and is now perched on a potentially dangerous 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

    The slight US Dollar resurgence is putting pressure on the price of gold. Following an early dip, the US Dollar has only partially recovered from its lowest position since late June, which is anticipated to impact the price of gold denominated in US dollars. The US’s Friday release of solid monthly employment figures and a pleasant surprise in pay growth raised the possibility that inflationary pressures will increase further. This improves the position of the dollar and fuels speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten monetary policy.

    gold

    The price of the XAU/USD pair is further hampered by rising US Treasury bond rates. The Federal Reserve’s chairman, Jerome Powell, also predicted that the peak interest rate would be higher than expected this week. Consequently, the price of US Treasury bonds rises throughout the day, which is seen as another factor supporting the US Dollar and pulling money away from the non-yielding Gold price. Further weighing on the XAU/USD is the recent optimism about easing COVID-19 restrictions in several Chinese cities, which has dampened demand for traditional safe-haven assets.

    To limit losses, the Federal Reserve wagers on slower rate hikes. At its next meeting on December 13–14, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to increase interest rates by a relatively small 50 basis points, but the downside is anticipated to remain cushioned—at least briefly. In the event of any big corrective slump, this should continue to support the price of gold, requiring careful positioning. The US ISM Services PMI, announced later during the early North American session, is now being anticipated by traders for short-term possibilities.

    Technical Gold Price Outlook


    Technically, last week’s extended surge past the significant 200-day SMA was seen as a brand-new trigger for bullish traders. Thus, buyers are more likely to be drawn to the $1,783–$1,782 range in the case of a future slump. The price of gold should thus be limited in its upward movement to the support level that served as the horizontal resistance breakpoint between $1,761 and $1,760.
    gold

    On the other hand, unless some follow-through buying happens beyond the $1,810 zone, bulls may want to delay placing further bets. The price of gold may then continue to increase, perhaps reaching the next significant obstacle on the road to the supply zone between $1,843 and $1,845 near the $1,830 region.

  • AUD/USD advances at 0.6700 on USD weakening

    AUD/USD advances at 0.6700 on USD weakening

    AUD/USD gains momentum on Tuesday as new USD selling materializes. The Dollar is affected by bets on less aggressive Fed rate rises and a rebound in risk sentiment. The COVID-19 problems in China should stop the positive developments and hinder Australian efforts.

    On Tuesday, there is some dip buying in the AUD/USD pair at the 0.6640 level, which stays in a purchasing mood into the early European session. Spot prices are back above the 0.6700 level thanks to the upward intraday movement, aided by the resurgence of new US Dollar selling.

    aud

    The AUD/USD pair is given some support due to several variables hindering Greenback’s ability to profit from the goodish overnight recovery from the crucial 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Market expectations for a modest 50 basis point rate increase in December were reinforced by a dovish evaluation of the November FOMC meeting minutes published last week. This weakens the safe-haven USD and helps the risk-averse Aussie, combined with a minor improvement in the global risk mood.

    However, the deteriorating COVID-19 scenario in China should temper any bullish market movement and act as a drag on the Australian Dollar, which serves as a proxy for China. In reality, China recorded a record-breaking number of COVID-19 infections on Monday, and the enactment of additional restrictions sparked a wave of unrest in several places. This intensifies concerns about a further downturn in economic activity and might affect market sentiment in the future.

    Furthermore, the overnight hawkish remarks from significant FOMC members should restrict the Dollar’s fall and further limit the AUD/USD pair’s gain. It is important to remember that James Bullard, the president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, John Williams, and Lael Brainard, the vice chair of the Fed, all reaffirmed that there would be more rate increases. Thus, bold bullish traders should be cautious and take positions for future profits.

    aud

    However, the AUD/USD pair seems to have ended a two-day losing trend and is still at the whim of USD price movements. The publication of the US Consumer Confidence Index by the Conference Board is currently anticipated by market players as a potential catalyst later in the early North American session. However, attention will continue to be on Wednesday’s speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and this week’s important US economic data, such as the NFP report on Friday.

  • Maximizing Profits: Choosing Between Long or Short Forex Trading Positions

    Maximizing Profits: Choosing Between Long or Short Forex Trading Positions

    For all beginning traders, it is essential to comprehend the fundamentals of going long or short forex. Whether a trader believes a currency will appreciate (go up) or depreciate (go down) in relation to another currency determines whether they take a long or short position. Defined, a trader will “Go Long” the underlying currency when they believe it will increase, and they will “Go Short” the underlying currency when they believe it will decrease.

    Learn more about long and short positions in forex trading, as well as when to employ them, by reading on.

    WHAT DOES A POSITION IN FOREX TRADING MEAN?

    A person or business that owns a certain quantity of a currency and is exposed to that currency’s swings versus other currencies is said to be in a forex position. It may be a short or lengthy posture. Three qualities define a forex position:

    • The base currency pair
    • The path (long or short)
    • The size

    Trades may be made in several currency pairings. They might go long if they believe the currency’s value will increase. Their account equity and the necessary margin would determine the magnitude of the stake they would take. Traders must use the proper level of leverage.

    WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO HAVE A LONG OR SHORT FOREX POSITION?

    In forex, taking a long or short position is betting on the value of a currency pair to rise or fall. The most fundamental part of dealing with the markets is deciding whether to go long or short. A trader who goes long will have a positive investment balance in an asset with the expectation that it will increase in value. When short, they will have a negative investment balance with the belief that the asset will lose value and be resold at a later date for a lower price.

    position

    WHAT IS A LONG POSITION, AND WHEN SHOULD IT BE TRADED?

    A transaction that has been conducted with the expectation that the underlying instrument would increase is known as a long position. For example, a trader who executes a purchase order holds a long position in the USD/JPY underlying asset. Here, they anticipate an increase in the US dollar value relative to the Japanese Yen.

    For instance, a trader who purchased two lots of USD/JPY has a long position in USD/JPY of two lots. The size is two lots, the underlying is USD/JPY, and the direction is long.

    To enter long positions, traders search for purchase indications. Traders employ indicators to search for buy and sell signals so they may join the market.

    The descent of a currency to a level of support is an illustration of a buy signal. In the graph below, the USD/JPY declines below 110.274 but repeatedly finds support. When the price falls to this level, 110.274, it acts as a support level and gives traders a buy signal.

    The FX market has the benefit of trading almost 24/7. Because there is higher liquidity during extensive trading sessions like New York, London, and sometimes Sydney and Tokyo, some traders choose to trade during those periods.

    position

    WHAT IS A SHORT POSITION, AND WHEN SHOULD IT BE TRADED?

    In many ways, a short position is the polar opposite of a long position. Trading participants anticipate that the price of the underlying currency will decline when they take a short position (go down). Shorting a currency refers to selling the underlying asset with the anticipation that its value will decline over time, enabling the trader to repurchase it later at a lower price. Profit is what separates the greater selling price from the lower purchase price. As a concrete example, a trader who shorts USD/JPY is selling USD to purchase JPY.

    To enter short positions, traders search for sell indications. When the price of the underlying currency hits a level of resistance, this is a popular sell signal. A price level the underlying has had difficulty breaking above is referred to as a level of resistance. In the graph below, the USD/JPY rises to 114.486 and then struggles to increase. When the price hits 114.486, this level turns into a resistance level and provides traders with a sell signal.

    Although if an opportunity arises, traders may execute their transaction essentially whenever the forex market is open, some traders choose to trade just during the big trading sessions.

  • How to Accept Losses Like a Winner?

    How to Accept Losses Like a Winner?

    Nobody enjoys losing, but success requires the ability to accept a loss. Just speak with a few of the most successful hedge fund managers in history. It isn’t about being correct, George Soros once remarked; it’s about how much money you earn when you’re right against how much money you lose when you’re wrong.

    Stanley Druckenmiller, a very successful student of Soros, once said in an interview that he believes he is correct about 60% of the time. He is thus mistaken 40% of the time. Another billionaire macro icon, Paul Tudor Jones, has said that he is wrong approximately as frequently as he is correct, but he agrees with Soros that the sum of one’s wins is more important than the sum of one’s losses.

    This implies that many of the world’s most successful hedge fund managers are often mistaken. And they don’t care since it is just crucial in terms of the game and not what is most important. What matters to them is risk management for their concepts and the asymmetry between their winning and failed ideas.

    loss

    Accepting loss is, of course, easier said than done since it is human nature to loathe loss; thus, absorbing losses regularly may be difficult to swallow for many. However, it would help if you embraced it since it is a necessary component of the game and what will ultimately keep you playing. Additionally, you may move on to the next possible winner more quickly the quicker a concept reaches its breaking point.

    Losses are not all made equal. When you consistently suffer losses or suffer losses that are too large in comparison to your victories, this should raise warning signs. A loss may result from market circumstances unfavorable to your trading strategy or style, or it may be a sign that you are not regularly adhering to your trading guidelines.

    Take a critical look at what you are doing while going through a losing streak (drawdown). Check your transaction record and diary to evaluate whether you are trading according to plan or veering off course. Determine what you need to do to go back on track if you see that you are veering off course. Losing in this situation is unacceptable since it was your fault.

    Although you should be adaptable to changing market circumstances, if you are following a sound, time-tested approach across many cycles, you should still be successful. This is especially true if you are following your plan and the market is not supportive of your strategy. Here, consistency is crucial, as is sticking with the plan despite setbacks.

    loss

    Summary:

    • The company’s most delicate don’t emphasize being correct all the time and recognize that accepting losses is part of the game.
    • The most critical factors are asymmetrical win/loss ratios and minimizing the risk of winning versus losing ideas.
    • But not all losses are the same; you need to know when losing is due to changes in the market and when it results from straying from your trading strategy.
  • 4 Global Market Updates- 29 September, 2022

    4 Global Market Updates- 29 September, 2022

    In this article, we have covered the highlights of global market news about the USD/CNH, AUD/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY.

    USD/CNH Price Analysis: Fades off weekly support at 7.2000.

    Early on Thursday morning in Europe, USD/CNH reverses the day’s loss from the record high despite recent inactivity around 7.1880.

    As a result, the offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) pair bounces off a horizontal region made up of many lows noted since Monday while RSI remains stable (14). The pair’s upward momentum is hampered by negative MACD indications and the buyer’s failure to control the price above the psychological level of 7.2000.

    However, it should be noted that any retreat movements below the indicated immediate support around 7.1460-50 are expected to be met with resistance from an upward-sloping support line from September 13 that is, as of the time of the press, near 7.1280.

    The vicinity of 7.1125 on the 50-SMA level also functions as a downward filter.

    The swing high at 7.1060 on September 22 and the psychological magnet at 7.1000 may serve as the final line of defence for the USD/CNH buyers even if the quote falls below 7.1125.

    As an alternative, recovery advances must continue above the 1.2000 level in order to persuade buyers to go for the several obstacles close to 1.2500.

    After that, attention will turn to the recently flashed record high at 7.2600 and the 7.3000 psychological magnet.

    AUD/USD: Risk-aversion, weaker be fore the US GDP, Australian inflation sends bears to the sub-0.6500 zone.

    As traders wait for new information to support recent retracement movements, the AUD/USD currency pair narrows intraday losses around 0.6490 after recently rebounding from daily lows.

    usd

    Nevertheless, the Australian dollar was under pressure early on Thursday due to disappointing readings of Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the risk-off atmosphere. In order to support the previous day’s recovery from the two-year low, the same joined stronger US Treasury rates.

    According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) first monthly CPI statistics, headline price pressure decreased from 7.0% in July to 6.8% in August. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently made some cautionary words in an effort to chastise AUD/USD purchasers after the publication of the data.

    The risk-on sentiment of Wednesday and China’s measures to boost domestic markets in an effort to allay concerns about a recession seem to support the recent recovery in US Treasury rates as well as the US currency. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) intends to issue 2.5 trillion yuan in government bonds in Q4 and may raise the onshore yuan fix for the first time in nine days along these lines.

    GBP/USD trades sideways around 1.0800, with attention shifting to US/UK GDP figures.

    In the Tokyo session, the GBP/USD pair is performing mediocrely. After falling from the important threshold of 1.0900, the asset has since turned sideways in a constrained range of 1.0782-1.0800. A failed effort to breach the barriers at 1.0900 caused the cable to correct, although a bullish impulsive advance after the end of a pullback cannot be ruled out.

    The unexpected decision by the Bank of England (BOE) to implement a bond-purchase programme in an effort to stabilize the financial markets has begun to manifest its effects. It is important to note that risk-sensitive currencies are doing well right now since the US dollar index (DXY) has reached an erratic high of around 115. Sterling’s gains, nevertheless, remain modest when compared to those of other currencies.

    To protect the economy from the financial instability, the BOJ would buy long-dated bonds totaling GBP 5 billion in a series of purchases over a 13-day period. Simply increasing liquidity might have a huge positive impact when people in the UK are already feeling the effects of greater price pressures and BOE officials are already working tirelessly to contain inflation.

    USD/JPY Price Analysis: Inventory adjustment is underway, with the 50-EMA serving as a major support.

    After falling to a level close to 144.00, the USD/JPY pair has now begun to recover. The asset is broadly probing the downward breach of the charted area, which is displayed in a constrained range between 144.40 and 144.90. The upward trend is showing clear and obvious signs of weariness, and the dollar bulls may soon relinquish control.

    usd

    The major is auctioning in an inventory adjustment procedure on a four-hour scale, indicating a somewhat lengthier consolidation time. It is crucial to note that institutional investors are accumulating or distributing funds as part of the adjustment process. Given that the asset is showing symptoms of momentum loss, the odds are in favor of an inventory distribution.

    The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is now around 113.80 at the time of writing, has served as a significant safety net for the supporters of the dollar. A volatile occurrence once interrupted the peace, but fortunately it was overstepped again. The dollar will decline if the 50-EMA continues to capitulate.

    The long-term trend is still strong, as seen by the 200-EMA scaling higher at 141.20.

    Please click here for the Market News Updates from 28 September, 2022.

  • EUR/USD Looks Offered, Falls Below Parity

    EUR/USD Looks Offered, Falls Below Parity

    The duo slips and once again violates parity. On Monday, the dollar seems bought with rising US rates. Next up in ECB-speak is EMU Construction Output. At the start of the week, sellers take back control of the European currency and push EUR/USD down below the zone of psychological parity.

    The EUR/USD will next find support near the 2022 low.

    The weak performance in the risk complex and renewed purchasing activity around the dollar ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday have caused the EUR/USD to reverse three straight daily advances so far and concentrate on the downside.

    According to CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool, the likelihood of the latter is now hovering around 80%, while the likelihood of a 100 bps rate increase has recently lost steam.

    The 10-year Bund rates on the German debt market are continuing their slow, multi-week uptrend and have so far flirted with the 1.80% range.

    Construction Output in the Greater Euroland will be the sole release on the euro docket to be backed by statements by ECB officials E. Fernandez-Bollo, L. De Guindos, and A. Enria. The NAHB index due date is followed by the 3-month and 6-month Bill auctions in the US.

    eur

    What should I look for in the EUR?

    Following increased caution and dollar purchasing ahead of the FOMC meeting, the EUR/USD stays under pressure and falls below the parity level (Wednesday).

    The Fed-ECB difference, geopolitical concerns, fragmentation issues, and market activity surrounding the euro are now anticipated to closely follow dollar dynamics.

    Concerns about a possible regional recession are now on the rise, and these concerns for the single currency are exacerbated by indicators of confidence that are declining and a probable slowdown in certain fundamentals.

    eur

    The ECB’s ongoing cycle of rate hikes is one of the pressing concerns on the back burner. late September elections in Italy. Risks of fragmentation exist when the ECB normalizes its monetary policies. Impact of the conflict in Ukraine and the ongoing energy shortage on the prognosis for inflation and growth in the area.

    EUR/USD Levels To Monitor

    The pair is now down 0.32 percent at 0.9979, and a break of 0.9944 (the week’s low on September 16) would lead to 0.9863 (2022 low on September 6) and eventually 0.9859. (December 2002 low). On the other side, the first resistance level appears at 1.0197 (monthly high September 12), then 1.0202 (high August 17), and finally 1.0310. (100-day SMA).

  • 10 Common Forex Trading Mistakes to Avoid

    10 Common Forex Trading Mistakes to Avoid

    Human error is widespread in the forex market and often results in well-known trading blunders. These trading errors often occur, especially with new traders. Having an awareness of these mistakes might make traders more effective in their forex trading. Despite the fact that all traders, regardless of experience level, make trading errors, being aware of the reasoning behind them may help to stop trading obstacles from becoming out of control. The top 10 trading errors and solutions are listed in this article. These errors are a part of the ongoing learning process, and traders should get used to them to prevent repeating blunders.
    Consider these 10 common trading blunders you must avoid before starting a forex trading strategy since they account for a large share of losing transactions.

    MISTAKE 1: NO TRADE PLAN

    Without a trading plan, traders’ approaches are often haphazard since their strategies are inconsistent. Trading strategies have established rules and methods for each deal. This stops traders from acting irrationally in response to unfavorable fluctuations. Sticking to a trading strategy is important since straying from it might result in traders entering uncharted waters in terms of trading style. This ultimately leads to trading errors brought on by unfamiliarity. Testing trading methods on a practice account is recommended. This may be used to a real account if traders are confident and comprehend the technique.

    MISTAKE 2: EXCESSIVE LEVERAGING

    The use of borrowed funds to establish forex trades is referred to as leverage or margin. This function reduces the amount of personal cash needed for each transaction, but there is a genuine risk of increased loss. Leverage amplifies earnings and losses, therefore controlling the amount used is essential. Find out more about forex market leverage.

    Brokers are crucial to their clients’ protection. Many brokers provide excessively high leverage ratios, such 1000:1, which greatly increase the risk to both inexperienced and seasoned traders. Regulated brokers will restrict leverage to reasonable levels under the direction of reputable financial authorities. When choosing the right broker, this should be taken into account.

    MISTAKE 3: INSUFFICIENT TIME HORIZON

    The trading method being used and time invested go hand in hand. Understanding the strategy will enable you to determine the estimated time frame utilized for each transaction since every trading method adapts to different time horizons. For instance, whereas positional traders prefer the longer time periods, scalpers focus on the shorter time frames. Investigate the forex trading methods for various time frames.

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    MISTAKE 4: Insufficient Research

    In order to implement and carry out a certain trading strategy, forex traders must make the necessary research investments. When markets are studied properly, fundamental effects, market patterns, and entry/exit timing may all be revealed. The more one understands the product itself, the more time is spent on the market. There are minute differences in how the various pairings operate inside the forex market. To thrive in the target market, these variations need to be carefully examined.

    Avoid reacting to media coverage and unfounded advise without first checking the information with the approach and analysis you’ve used. This often happens to traders. This is not to say that these suggestions and press releases shouldn’t be taken into account; rather, it means that they should be thoroughly researched before being put into practise.

    MISTAKE 5: BAD RISK-TO-REWARD RATIOS

    Traders often ignore favorable risk-to-reward ratios, which may lead to poor risk management. A good risk-to-reward ratio, such as 1:2, means that the trade’s potential profit is twice as great as its possible loss. A long EUR/USD trade with a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio is seen in the chart below. With a stop at 1.12598 (10 pip) and a limit of 1.12898, the trade was initiated at a level of 1.12698. (20 pips). The Average True Range (ATR), which bases entry and exit points on market volatility, is a useful indicator for identifying stop and limit levels in forex trading.

    A ratio in mind may help traders moderate their expectations, which is crucial since, according to extensive research by DailyFX, poor risk management has emerged as the most common error traders make.

    Risk-to-reward ratio for EUR/USD is 1:2.

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    MISTAKE 6: TRADING BASED ON EMOTION

    Trading decisions made out of emotion are often illogical and ineffective. After losing transactions, traders typically start new positions to make up for the loss. These trades often lack any technical or fundamental educational support. Since trading strategies are designed to prevent this kind of trade, they must be strictly adhered to.

    MISTAKE 7: INACCURATE TRADING SIZE

    Every trading strategy must take trade size into account. Many traders trade in sizes that are inappropriate for their account sizes. Thereafter, risk grows and account balances may be lost. DailyFX advises putting no more than 2% of the entire value of the account at risk. For instance, if the account has $10,000 in it, a maximum risk of $200 per transaction is advised. The strain of overexposing the account would be relieved if traders follow this basic guideline. Overexposing the account to one single market carries a very high risk.

    MISTAKE 8: TRADING ON MULTIPLE MARKETS

    Trading on a small number of marketplaces allows traders to amass the required expertise to master these markets without even touching the surface of a small number of markets. Due to a lack of knowledge, many newbie forex traders attempt to trade on various markets without success. If necessary, this should be carried out using a demo account. Trades without the required fundamental or technical reason are often made by traders as a result of noise trading (irrational trading) on a variety of marketplaces.

    For instance, the 2018 Bitcoin mania attracted many noisy traders at the wrong moment. Sadly, a lot of traders joined the market at the “FOMO or Euphoria” period of the market cycle, which led to huge losses.

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    MISTAKE 9: FAILURE TO REVIEW TRADES

    The regular usage of a trading log will enable traders to recognize both successful and potential strategy weaknesses. The trader’s general comprehension of the market and future strategy will improve as a result. Reviewing transactions reveals both mistakes and positive elements that need to be continually emphasized.

    MISTAKE 10: CHOOSING AN UNSUITABLE BROKER

    Choosing the best CFD broker might be challenging since there are so many of them available worldwide. Before creating an account with a broker, financial security and legal compliance are required. The broker’s website should make this information easily accessible. To avoid laws in more stringent nations like the US (Commodity Exchange Act) and the UK, many brokers are licensed in nations with lax rules (FCA).

    Safety is the first priority, but selecting a broker also involves considering the broker’s platform’s comfort level and simplicity of use. Prior to trade with actual money, you should allow yourself enough time to get familiar with the platform and costs.

    MISTAKES IN FOREX TRADING: A SUMMARY

    Before engaging in any kind of live trading, it’s essential to have the appropriate theoretical framework for forex trading. Future traders will profit from taking the time to comprehend the dos and don’ts of FX trading. All traders will ultimately make mistakes, but it’s important to train and develop anticipated behavior in order to reduce errors and prevent repeat crimes. This article’s main emphasis is on maintaining a trading strategy with appropriate risk management and a workable reviewing mechanism.