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  • Gold Price Rally Soars: Banks Predict Continued Surge Into 2025

    Gold Price Rally Soars: Banks Predict Continued Surge Into 2025

    The gold price rally has become one of the standout stories in global markets, capturing the attention of investors and analysts alike. As major banks forecast that this record-breaking rally will continue into 2025, all eyes are on the precious metal. In 2024, gold surged to new heights, supported by a confluence of factors. Analysts cite a revival of large inflows into Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and expected interest rate cuts as key drivers for the extended rally. With central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, signaling further monetary easing, gold remains a favored investment, particularly as a reliable safe-haven asset during uncertain times.

    ETFs and Their Impact on the Gold Price Rally

    Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have played a pivotal role in gold’s current price performance. Over the past year, there has been a notable increase in investor demand for gold ETFs, which has significantly contributed to the ongoing gold price rally. Large inflows into these funds have bolstered gold demand, creating upward pressure on prices. Analysts from UBS and J.P. Morgan agree that these ETFs will remain instrumental in driving gold’s momentum as we move further into 2025.

    ETFs offer an accessible way for retail and institutional investors to gain exposure to gold without physically holding the metal. This convenience has made them an attractive option, particularly as market volatility grows. With geopolitical concerns and fears of recession looming, more investors are turning to gold ETFs as a safer alternative. Additionally, the fact that gold is a non-yielding asset makes it especially appealing during times of low interest rates, enhancing its appeal as a safe-haven asset.

    The Role of Interest Rate Cuts in Gold’s Rally

    Interest rate cuts, particularly those initiated by the U.S. Federal Reserve, have been another major catalyst for the ongoing gold price rally. Gold, being a zero-yielding asset, tends to benefit in a low interest rate environment. When interest rates are low, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, making it more attractive compared to other investments. This is especially true when central banks signal continued cuts, as has been the case recently.

    The U.S. Federal Reserve began its easing cycle with a half-percentage-point cut, with expectations of more cuts to come. Analysts predict that by the end of 2024, the Fed will reduce rates by another 50 basis points, with a full percentage point reduction in 2025. These interest rate cuts are likely to continue fueling the gold price rally, as investors seek alternatives to traditional assets that may struggle in a low-rate environment.

    Additionally, the actions of other central banks around the world will influence gold’s trajectory. As nations grapple with inflation and economic uncertainty, many are expected to follow the U.S. Federal Reserve’s lead in cutting rates. This global shift towards looser monetary policy only strengthens gold’s position as a safe-haven asset.

    Geopolitical Uncertainty and Gold’s Appeal as a Safe-Haven Asset

    In times of geopolitical uncertainty, gold often shines as a trusted safe-haven asset. Whether it’s fears of global conflict, economic instability, or political volatility, investors tend to flock to gold when uncertainty looms. This is particularly true in the current environment, where concerns over trade wars, inflation, and even potential recessions have taken center stage. Analysts believe these factors will continue to drive demand for gold, extending the current gold price rally well into 2025.

    Historically, gold has been a go-to investment during turbulent times. Its intrinsic value and ability to preserve wealth make it a favored asset during periods of financial stress. As tensions escalate globally, from ongoing trade disputes to regional conflicts, investors are increasingly looking to gold as a hedge against uncertainty. This shift has been evident in the record-high prices gold has achieved throughout 2024, with the precious metal reaching new heights of $2,639.95 per ounce.

    Moreover, with upcoming events such as the 2025 U.S. presidential election, market volatility is expected to rise further. Analysts predict that this election could create even more uncertainty, pushing investors towards gold as a stable investment option. The prospect of unpredictable market movements makes gold a reliable store of value during such volatile periods.

    Strong Physical Demand from China and Central Banks

    Another factor supporting the ongoing gold price rally is strong physical demand, particularly from China and central banks worldwide. Over the past two years, Chinese consumers have shown an increasing appetite for gold, driving up prices. Central banks, too, have been ramping up their gold reserves as a hedge against currency fluctuations and global economic instability. This surge in physical demand has helped sustain the gold price rally, adding further momentum to its upward trajectory.

    China’s growing middle class and increasing wealth have translated into higher gold purchases, both for personal use and as investments. This has contributed to steady demand, pushing prices higher. Similarly, central banks, especially in emerging economies, are diversifying their reserves by increasing their gold holdings. With these institutions continuing to accumulate gold, the market is likely to see sustained upward pressure on prices.

    What Lies Ahead for the Gold Price Rally?

    As we approach 2025, the outlook for gold remains bullish. Analysts expect the gold price rally to continue, supported by ongoing interest rate cuts, strong ETF inflows, and rising geopolitical tensions. The actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks will play a pivotal role in shaping gold’s future, as low interest rates make gold more attractive to investors. Furthermore, physical demand from China and central banks will likely provide additional support, ensuring that gold’s upward trajectory remains intact.

    Despite reaching record highs in 2024, many believe that gold still has room to rise. As market uncertainty grows, more investors may flock to the precious metal, driving prices even higher. In particular, the upcoming U.S. presidential election could create another wave of market volatility, pushing gold demand to new levels. Analysts remain optimistic that gold will continue to outperform other asset classes, making it one of the best investments in the coming years.

    Conclusion

    The gold price rally shows no signs of slowing down. With major banks predicting continued gains into 2025, gold remains a highly attractive asset for investors. The revival of large inflows into ETFs, ongoing interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve, and strong physical demand from China and central banks are all contributing to gold’s impressive run. As geopolitical uncertainty grows, gold continues to assert its position as the ultimate safe-haven asset. For investors seeking stability in uncertain times, gold is likely to remain a top choice as we head into 2025.

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  • Price Gap

    Price Gap

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    What’s a Price Gap?

    When there are no new opportunities available for a period of time, a gap emerges in the charts. These gaps can be seen on bar and candlestick charts. You can tell whether there is a price gap when there is an empty space between the closing of one candlestick and the open of the next candlestick. Some markets, such as futures and stock markets, are more prone to gaps, whilst other markets, such as Forex, have far less gaps. 

    Price disparities can go in two directions: up and down. The term “gap up” or “gap higher” refers to the fact that the current candle’s low is higher than the preceding candle’s high.

    Types of Price Gaps

    Aside from price changes, there are four basic sorts of prices that do not display on the charts. 

    1. Common Deficits 

    The common gap is exactly what its name implies: common and dull. Because typical gaps are common price patterns, they do not indicate any intriguing information in the markets. The most common gaps are filled the most frequently. Common gaps are modest in size and do not provide a sufficient reward. The risk-reward ratio isn’t really worth it.

    2. Separation Gaps 

    Typically, the breakaway gap is not filled. Not to add that the price usually moves away from the breakout gap right away. When does this type of pricing disparity occur? A breakaway gap arises when price gaps cross exactly above a level of support or resistance. It is a recurring breakout pattern, with genuine breakouts occurring in the form of a gap. A breakaway gap is more powerful than you believe, and the larger the breakaway gap, the greater the candle following the gap, and hence the stronger the trend.

    3. Excessive Gaps 

    During a strong trend, a runaway gap arises when price continues to gap in the direction of the trend. During a strong trend, you will typically notice many runaway gaps. 

    Rather than waiting for a countertrend gap to fill during a runaway gap, simply follow the trend. You can also stay in your current trades if there is a runaway gap, which indicates strength. Experienced traders always do this to prevent putting too much of their cash at danger.

    Gaps in Exhaustion 

    Exhaustion gaps indicate that a trend is nearing the conclusion of its life cycle. Essentially, it occurs when the price creates a succession of price gaps in the late stages of a trend. These patterns may also indicate that a move is about to reverse direction. Some traders just abandon their trade when they notice exhaustion gaps after a given trend has been in place for some time. Others wait for a second signal to ensure that the trend is ending before exiting their investments.

    When is a Price Gap “Filled”? 

    A price gap is “filled” when the price returns to the level it was at before to the gap. In the days that follow, the price action returns to the level it was at the day before the gap.

  • Gold Targets Key Resistance as CPI Approaches

    Gold price has been climbing this month, with significant resistance above the 1830 mark. Prices increased as a result of a recent crossover of the 20-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). 

    If the gold bulls fail to break through the 1830 level, a retracement to the rising 20-day SMA could be in order. A psychological barrier around 1800 is a likely downside objective.

    Gold price surged overnight as traders pondered interest rate bets. Price soared beyond the high-profile 1800 mark last week after the Bank of England surprised investors by leaving interest rates steady. 

    The 10-year Treasury yield climbed overnight but fell short of the psychological mark of 1.5 percent. The closely watched rate fell throughout Tuesday’s Asia-Pacific session, allowing gold to gain.

    gold

    Last week, rate hike bets on the Federal Reserve shifted to the right, with rate traders pricing in a less aggressive policy path. On Tuesday, the chance of a 25 basis point hike at the June 2022 FOMC meeting fell to 45.5 percent, down from 47.4 percent a week earlier. Despite the fact that the employment data was stronger than predicted.

    For rate-sensitive gold price, the Fed’s prediction is critical. Traders are still anticipating the publication of US inflation data later this week. The Fed’s outlook is an essential determinant for rate-sensitive gold price. Nonetheless, traders are anticipating the publication of US inflation data later this week.

    While Fed Chair Powell maintains that rising price pressures are just temporary, he recently recognised that inflation has been more stubborn than previously believed. However, a few more months of robust inflation data might push rate hike forecasts forward.